On the road this week, so some days may or may not have gameplans. We will see how my mornings are. Fridays report added 29,000 jobs, nowhere near what anybody wanted. The market’s answer to barely anybody getting hired was to buy chips, and NQ printed the highest price it has ever traded Friday. The S&P skipped the party and went out red on the week, parked on the same price it did its business at last week. Gold got mugged Monday morning and never got back up. Crude got yanked from 96 to 88 by every headline that crossed the tape and still finished in the box it started in. Don’t ask me how one bad number makes one index a record and the other a loser. I don’t even really work here.
The Week That Was
The October rate hike the market was pricing a week ago is off the table, and it took two soft numbers to get it there. Wednesday’s inflation read came in lighter than expected and Friday’s jobs report finished the job, with unemployment ticking up to 4.2%. The Nasdaq went out green on the week with Nvidia printing a record, while the S&P and the Dow both went out red. The 10-year closed every session over 5.2 and the dollar finished the week stronger, and gold ate both, falling out of last week’s range Monday and never trading back into it. Crude ran to 96.54 Sunday night with the Strait of Hormuz still shut, sold to 88.58 by Wednesday, ripped Thursday when China’s refiners halted fuel exports for October and more US forces headed for the Middle East, then gave it back Friday on an emergency reserve release. OPEC+ met this morning and left November output where it was.
ES is 7779 and went out red on the week after opening Monday under last week’s 7804.50 close, sitting on 7775 where the week, Friday and October all put their POC. Thursday it got sold to 7672.75, under the floor of September’s entire value, and Friday took every bit of it back to 7810.25 before stalling right on top of 7808, the ceiling September’s value built. Sit out the whole week and you missed four sessions of selling and one of repair, and still finished about where Monday opened.
NQ is 31070 after printing 31282.50 Friday, the highest price it has ever traded, and it closed over everything its week built. The catch is the week did its business down at 30625, under last week’s 30740 POC, so value slid lower while price went higher and only Friday’s session lives up here. Monday’s 30356.75 low still left the 30216.50 gap from two weeks ago sitting there unfilled.
CL is 91.10, under 91.44 where the week and Friday both left their POC. It went 96.54 Sunday night to 88.06 Friday and built its value from 90.20 to 93.01, right inside the 90.21 to 93.80 box last week built. For all the noise, the week never built value anywhere last week hadn’t already built it.
GC is 4162.60, sitting on 4161, the floor of the value this week built, after Friday ran 4259 and sold the whole run back into the close. Monday flushed it through 4279.50, where last week bottomed, before the pit opened and on down to 4143.10 after it did, and the rest of the week never made it back up there. That’s three straight weeks of lower value, and this one built entirely under the last one.
Cross-asset read: NQ is the only one of the four that left the room. ES and crude both spent the week rebuilding last week’s value on top of itself, and gold built its whole week under last week’s low and couldn’t get back. One index printing records while ES closes red is a rally riding on the chip names.
Positioning (September 29 data): The S&P crowd added close to 11,000 shorts and trimmed longs again, taking the net short from 112,000 to better than 127,000 going into a week the index finished red. The Nasdaq crowd dumped about 9,500 longs and sits net long around 46,000, three sessions before NQ printed its record. The short crowd finally got paid and the Nasdaq longs sold too early.
Vol: VIX went out at 15.31, up from last Friday’s 14.87 after a 16.39 close Thursday. Protection got a little more expensive and is still cheap for a tape with the 10-year over 5.2.
The Calendar
What I’m Watching This Week
1. The long end. The 10-year closed every session last week over 5.2, and this week it has to clear a 3-year auction Tuesday, a 10-year Wednesday and a 30-year Thursday. A sloppy takedown at any of the three puts the rate argument Friday’s jobs number just settled right back on the table.
2. ES 7775. Three POCs on one print and last week’s 7771.50 a few ticks under it. Over it ES is a market waiting on somebody to pay 7808. Under 7743, September’s POC, it’s back in the chop that ate the whole month.
3. NQ 31060. Friday’s POC, printed right on 31065.50, last week’s record. Over it NQ is somewhere nobody has traded before. Give back 30950 and everybody who bought the record is holding the bag inside last week’s value.
4. Crude’s box. Two weeks, two value areas, 90.20 to 93.01 and 90.21 to 93.80, one stacked on the other. A close outside either edge is the first thing crude has done in two weeks that counts, and 88.06 and 95.70 are where the edges get real.
5. Gold’s gap. 4259 to 4279.50, Friday’s high to last week’s low, untouched all week. Until gold trades back into that hole, every bounce is happening underneath a market that already left.
The Week’s Plan
ES:
ES is 7779, standing on the 7775 shelf where this week, Friday and October all did their business, with last week’s 7771.50 POC a few ticks under it, and that stack is the trigger. Two straight weeks trading on the same shelf is a market that likes its price and is waiting on a reason to leave. The reason isn’t coming from the buyers yet, because Friday ran to 7810.25 and quit just over 7808, the ceiling September’s value built, then closed back down on the shelf. Hold 7775 and the first work is 7790.50, where Friday topped its value, then the 7808 and 7810.25 pair that turned Friday around. Clear that pair and 7824, last week’s value ceiling, opens 7841.50, the POC August built, with 7848.50, the high last week and September share, sitting right behind it. Lose 7771.50 and 7765, Friday’s value floor, catches first, then 7743, the POC September built. Under 7743 it’s 7723, where the week’s value began, and then the 7672.75 low Thursday printed under September’s entire value area. Below that low the map is empty to 7610.50, the low August made.
NQ:
NQ is 31070, a few points over 31060, Friday’s POC, and that print sitting right on 31065.50, last week’s record high, is the line. The old high turning into the price Friday did its business at is what a real breakout looks like, at least for one session. The problem is everything underneath, because the week built its volume at 30625, below last week’s 30740, and a record with no volume under it has nothing to land on if it fails. Hold 31060 and 31163, the top of Friday’s value, is the only thing between price and 31282.50, the record it printed Friday. Past 31282.50 the chart is blank, and any number I give you up there is made up. Lose 31004.50, the floor of Friday’s value, and 30950, where last week capped its value, catches first, then 30840, this week’s value ceiling. Under those the gate is 30625, where this week and October both left their POC with September’s value ceiling printed alongside them. Give up the gate and 30356.75, Monday’s low, is all that stands in front of 30216.50, the gap from two weeks ago that still hasn’t filled.
CL:
Crude is 91.10, under 91.44, the week’s POC with Friday’s sharing the number, and the whole plan hangs on that print, with 92.00, where last week and September both put their POC, sitting right over it. One headline after another dragged it from 95.70 down to 88.06 and the week still built its value inside last week’s box, two value floors sitting on 90.20 and 90.21. What argues for the downside is Friday, which printed the week’s low and closed under the POC, so the sellers had the last word going into the weekend. Take 91.44 back and 92.00 is the gate, then 93.01, the week’s ceiling, with 93.24, October’s, right over it. Through those, 93.80, last week’s ceiling, opens 95.70, the high this week made, and 96.78, last week’s. Lose 90.20, where both weeks’ value bottomed, and 89.58, September’s floor, catches, then 89.19, Friday’s. Under 88.06, the low Friday printed, there’s no volume on the map until 83.42, the low September made, with August’s 83.40 high sitting on it.
GC:
Gold is 4162.60, a hair over 4161, the floor of the week’s value, with Friday’s 4165 POC printed over it, and that pair decides the week. Friday’s run to 4259 got sold all the way back into the close. A week spent entirely under last week’s low, with its one real rally sold before it could touch it, is a chart the sellers are still running. What it has going for it is 4143.10, the low Monday’s flush printed, because Tuesday and Friday both went back toward it and neither got through. Hold 4161 and 4190, the week’s POC, with October’s 4200 right over it, is the first work, then 4213.70, the week’s value ceiling. Clear those and 4259, the week high, is the gate, with 4279.50 the top of the gap this whole week never touched. Over the gap it reads 4318, September’s floor, and 4320, last week’s POC, the shelf gold traded on before Monday. Lose 4153.80, Friday’s low, and 4143.10 is the gate, the low September and this week share, and under it the map is empty to 4079.20, the low August made.
The White Van Stuff
The weight in the books is parked where it has been the last three weeks, the semiconductor book at the 99th percentile of its own year, the Nasdaq-100 ETF at the 93rd and Meta and Microsoft in the 90s, while the banks sit at the 9th and small caps and gold at the 14th and 13th. Into Friday’s expiration the S&P book carries close to two puts for every call and the tech book about one and a half, while crude’s nearest books went from close to four puts per call a week ago to more calls than puts. Gold’s book runs dead even, and its whole cage stepped down with price, the cap from 4725 to 4510 and the put floor from 4250 to 4050.
ES: The cap on this book jumped to 8000 from 7830, and the heaviest line is still 7750 with the 7745 pivot printed right under it. Price closed 7779, a few points over the 7775 and under the 7825, inside a week band that runs 7638.75 to 7919.25.
NQ: NQ closed over its own 31000 cap, and the heaviest line in the whole book is 31250 right over price, with a ladder from 31300 out through 31750 stacked behind it. The pivot moved up to 30690 from 30090, and under the cap there’s nothing with weight until 30800. Price is 31070, over the cap and under the 31100.
CL: Crude closed under its own 91.50 pivot, with 90.50, the biggest number in the book, sitting right under price and 88.50 and 88 behind it. Overhead it’s 92.50 through 93.50, then 96 and the 100 cap, inside a week band of 84.87 to 97.33. Price is 91.10, between the 90.50 and the pivot.
GC: Gold’s heaviest line is 4150, just under Friday’s close, with 4125 and 4120 behind it and the put floor at 4050. Overhead there’s nothing until 4225, and the pivot is way up at 4295, over the top of the 4036.40 to 4288.80 week band. Price is 4162.60, over the 4160 and the 4150.
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