Happy Labor Day, everyone. I still like ES above 7688.75 this week, but NQ needs to get comfortable above 29600 before I trust the two of them together. Crude near last week’s high and gold back below 4450 make this a pretty lousy place to assume everything is fine. Have a good day outside, grilling and taking the day off. SundayTicks/VibeCheck Hybrid tonight. Tune in at 8pm CT.
The Week That Was
Stocks are starting the holiday week above last week’s busiest prices, even after Friday’s stronger jobs report put higher rates back in the conversation. That matters because sellers got their headline and still haven’t taken back the middle of the weekly index profiles. Crude is a different problem, trading near the top of its range as weekend tanker strikes added another risk to supply. Gold has already slipped back below its August fair price after Friday’s recovery. I can work with the index recovery, but I don’t see agreement across these four markets yet.
ES: ES is around 7708, above last week’s 7679 fair price but still inside its value area. Friday finished the cash session back inside that same area after trading higher, so buyers have recovered ground without establishing a breakout.
NQ: NQ is around 29563, just above the 29520 where last week’s business concentrated. The overnight push through 29600 didn’t stick, leaving buyers underneath the August fair price again.
CL: Crude is around 92.37 after finishing Friday’s pit session at 91.50. Last week’s recovery carried it back through the entire August value area, and it is now much closer to the weekly high than to the 90.75 where most of last week’s business traded.
GC: Gold is around 4436, below last week’s 4490 fair price and back near the lower edge of weekly value. Friday recovered from its lows into the pit close, but that recovery hasn’t survived the holiday session.
Cross-asset read: The indexes are holding above last week’s fair prices while gold is below its own. Crude staying expensive adds pressure to that split; a stock rally would look better with oil backing into value instead of pressing its high.
Positioning, September 1 report: Large speculators were net short S&P futures and added more shorts than longs. Nasdaq positioning went the other way, with its net-long position improving mostly because shorts covered, not because a wave of new longs showed up.
Vol: Crude is testing the upper end of last week’s range while gold is back near the lower edge of weekly value. Those are the two places where I’d be most careful about treating the first reversal as a lasting turn.
The Calendar
All times Central. The important wrinkle is the holiday schedule: crude inventories move to Thursday at 11:00 a.m., right in the middle of an already busy day.
What I’m Watching This Week
1. Whether ES keeps its August value area. Buyers are back above its lower edge, but they haven’t recovered the month’s fair price. Holding the first while working toward the second would make the recovery worth trusting.
2. Whether NQ can stay above its August fair price. It has already traded through it overnight and come back. Another touch tells me very little; business holding above it would tell me something new.
3. Whether expensive crude starts bothering stocks. Oil is near its weekly high while the indexes are still inside weekly value. If crude breaks higher and the indexes lose their recovered ground, the disagreement has a consequence.
4. Whether gold’s recovery gets sold again. It is below both August and last week’s fair prices. Getting back above one is a start; staying above both would make the bearish read harder to defend.
5. Where the new week’s volume builds. A quick push outside last week’s value can come straight back. I want to see business accumulate outside it before calling any of these moves a new weekly trend.
The Week’s Plan
ES:
ES is above August’s 7688.75 lower value edge, and I favor the recovery while buyers keep that ground. Holding there gives them another chance at 7726.50, the top of last week’s value, then 7766.50, last week’s high. The harder test is 7775, where August did most of its business; staying above that would put the month’s 7798.75 upper value edge in reach. Back under the trigger, 7679 is last week’s fair-price check before 7644, its lower value edge, and a failure there would undo the recovery toward 7618.50, last week’s low.
NQ:
NQ is just below 29600, the August and quarter fair price, after an overnight attempt above it failed. I want buyers holding that price before favoring a run at 29704.50, last week’s high, and then 29931.50, the top of August value. Staying above that upper edge would bring 30065, the quarter’s upper value boundary, into the read. Buyers still have last week’s 29520 fair price underneath them, so a failed breakout alone isn’t enough to make me bearish. Losing that support would expose August’s 29254.75 lower value edge, then last week’s 29155.50 lower value edge, with a full failure pointing back toward the weekly low at 28927.25.
CL:
Crude is above 90.75, where both last week and September have done the most business, so I favor buyers while that price holds. It has just pushed through 92.33, September’s upper value edge; holding above it would favor a test of 93.09, the top of last week’s value, then the weekly high at 93.14. Above that high the supplied weekly and monthly profiles have no higher anchor, and I’m not making one up. Losing 90.75 would change the read, with September’s 89.62 lower value edge first and the quarter’s 88.43 upper value edge below it. Failure through that area brings last week’s 88.28 lower value edge into play, then the August breakout level at 87.69.
GC:
Gold is below the August and quarter fair price at 4450, and I favor sellers until buyers can hold back above it. A recovery still has last week’s 4490 fair price in front of it, followed by September’s 4495 upper value edge, so reclaiming the trigger alone doesn’t finish the repair. Staying above that area would change my read toward last week’s 4542.10 upper value edge and 4558.50 high. On another rejection, last week’s 4420.30 lower value edge is the first test, followed by September’s 4371.10 lower value edge and August’s 4364.70 lower value edge. If that support fails too, last week’s low is 4329.20.
The White Van Stuff
These are Friday’s all-expiry options levels going into the short week. They show where the book has interest, not where price is required to stop, and they’re separate from the volume-profile levels above.
ES: The 7705 magnet is right underneath price, with 7720 the nearest interest above. That is a tight starting point, but the larger cap is still 7800 and the put floor is down at 7650.
NQ: The 29600 cap is the first options obstacle above price, with more interest stacked from 29700 through 30000. Underneath, 29400 and 29300 come before the 29290 magnet, so I wouldn’t skip straight to that magnet on a failed push higher.
CL: Crude has already cleared the 90 cap, which is a useful reminder that the label doesn’t make it a ceiling forever. The nearest interest is 93 above and 92 below, with another cluster extending up to 95.
GC: Gold is below the 4450 magnet, with interest at 4425 immediately underneath. Recovering the magnet would still leave 4470 and 4475 ahead of the 4510 cap; the distant 3900 put floor doesn’t erase the nearer levels below.
Just keep swimming.
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