1. LAST WEEK
Last week was a 300-handle round trip in ES. Opened the week at 6380 on Monday, flushed to 6353 in the first session, then spent the rest of the week clawing back. Tuesday ripped to 6654 and stalled one tick below the prior week’s high. Wednesday and Thursday rotated inside Tuesday’s range. Closed the week at 6604. The weekly profile is a hammer: POC 6610, VAH 6654, VAL 6468. That’s a wide value area, 186 handles, but the close above POC tells you buyers won the week. Volume was 1.85M contracts on Thursday alone. People were in the pool.
NQ did the same thing louder. Opened 23190, bottomed at 22962 on Monday, ripped 1400 handles to 24348 by Tuesday, and settled the week at 24130. Weekly POC 24150, VAH 24348, VAL 23659. The monthly open at 23926 flipped from overhead problem to floor. NQ closing above it is the one thing that matters structurally.
Crude was the headline and the reason for all of it. CL opened the week at 102.60, Monday dropped to 96.50 on the early equity flush, then headlines hit. Iran, Strait of Hormuz, and crude went vertical. Thursday’s RTH session printed 97.50 to 113.97. Sixteen handles. That’s not a typo. Weekly POC only at 102 because the bulk of last week’s volume was in the low 100s before the Thursday explosion.
Gold ran from 4520 to 4826 and reversed $126 off the highs on Thursday, closing at 4699. Weekly POC 4620, VAH 4720, VAL 4527. The safe haven bid got crowded, took profits, and is now sitting at 4700 waiting for the next catalyst.
What I’m taking into this week: the equity V-reversal is real but unconfirmed. ES needs to take out 6654 (last week’s high) to confirm it. Crude is the variable that moves everything else. Gold is digesting.
2. THE WEEK AHEAD
CALENDAR
Mon 4/7 7:30am Trade Balance (Feb) LOW
Wed 4/9 1:00pm FOMC Minutes (March) HIGH
Thu 4/10 7:30am Initial Jobless Claims MED
Thu 4/10 7:30am PPI (March) HIGH
Fri 4/11 7:30am CPI (March) HIGH
All Week Fed Speakers MED
Back-loaded week. Monday and Tuesday are light. Wednesday FOMC minutes will show how the Fed is thinking about $110 crude and tariff pass-through with rates at 3.5-3.75%. Thursday PPI, Friday CPI. If CPI comes in hot because of energy, the “hold steady” story gets harder to tell.
The weekend wildcard is Iran. Ceasefire talks are active. A framework would crater crude and rip equities. A breakdown sends crude toward 120 and we retest the lows.
3. WEEKLY STRUCTURE
ES
Last: 6630 | Monthly Open: 6572 | Weekly VWAP: 6617
Wednesday’s last RTH session was a rotation day. 140-handle range, opened at 6622, dropped to 6504, ripped back to 6644, closed at 6624. The profile shows POC at 6610, VAH 6634, VAL 6564. Classic balanced day, close right at the POC.
Sunday Globex opened at 6621, traded up to 6651, sitting at 6630. Overnight profile is building with the POC at 6626, a massive volume cluster: 17,251 contracts at the 6626 level. Overnight value area is tight, 6615 to 6637. Price is above the session VWAP at 6617.
The monthly profile for April has POC at 6610, VAH 6639, VAL 6593. ES is above the monthly open at 6572 and trading in the upper half of April’s value. Constructive.
The histogram tells the story. Two distributions: a lower cluster at 6576-6584 (RTH activity from Thursday’s flush and recovery) and the dominant overnight cluster at 6622-6632. The LVN at 6592 (only 260 contracts) is the gap between them. If price drops through 6592, it falls fast into the 6580 area. If it holds above 6615, the overnight POC is the magnet.
ES LEVELS
Prior Week High 6654 Resistance. The confirmation level.
Weekly VAH 6638 Current upper value boundary
Overnight POC/HVN 6626 17K contracts. Magnet.
Session VWAP 6617 Weekly anchor
Prior Session POC 6610 Multi-day POC, building significance
Monthly VAL 6593 April’s lower value bound
LVN Speed Gap 6592 260 contracts. Fast through here.
RTH HVN Cluster 6580 Volume support from Thursday
Monthly Open 6572 Must hold for bulls.
Prior Week VAL 6468 Deep support
The levels I actually care about this week: 6654 above (confirm or reject), 6610 in the middle (multi-session POC, this is the line), and 6572 below (monthly open, lose this and the V-reversal is done).
NQ
Last: 24311 | Monthly Open: 23926 | Weekly VWAP: 24215
NQ is the stronger of the two. Already trading above last week’s VAH at 24348, pressing the highs. Wednesday’s session was an outside day, 600-handle range, POC at 24150. That 24150 level is showing up everywhere: it’s the Wednesday POC, the weekly POC, and the monthly POC. Three timeframes converging on the same price. That’s a level.
Sunday overnight has POC at 24308 with a fat 5,238-contract cluster at 24305. Value area 24146 to 24375. The RTH profile from Thursday shows two separate distributions: one at 24055-24075 (early session selling) and another at 24200-24220 (afternoon recovery). The LVN between them at 24090-24120 is the speed gap.
NQ LEVELS
Prior Week High 24348 Resistance, already testing
Weekly VAH 24375 Current upper value
Overnight POC/HVN 24308 5.2K contracts
Session VWAP 24215 Weekly anchor
Multi-TF POC 24150 Wed + Week + Month POC. The level.
Monthly VAL 24031 April lower value
Monthly Open 23926 Bull/bear line for April
RTH HVN 24055 Thursday early session volume
LVN Speed Gap 24090 Thin. Fast through here.
NQ in positive gamma means moves get dampened, more range-bound. ES in negative gamma means swings and follow-through. If they start diverging, follow whichever one is leading.
CL
Last: 110 | Monthly Open: 101.72 | Weekly VWAP: 111.50
Crude is still digesting Thursday. That was a 16.47 handle range in one RTH session, 97.50 to 113.97. The weekly POC from last week is at 102 because most of the volume traded before the breakout. Current session value area is 109.52 to 112.30 with POC at 111. Price is sitting right in the middle of value at 110.
IV is at 112.65%. That’s crisis pricing. The expected daily move is $8.
CL LEVELS
Thursday High 113.97 The blow-off top
VWAP +1 stddev 113.00 Upper range boundary
Weekly VAH 112.30 Current upper value
Session POC 111.00 Magnet
ETH POC 110.00 Overnight anchor
Weekly VAL 109.52 Current lower value
Monthly VWAP -1σ 100.00 Deep support if headlines reverse
Crude is headline-driven right now. The profile and levels matter less than whatever comes out of the Middle East. Size accordingly.
GC
Last: 4700 | Monthly Open: 4698 | Weekly VWAP: 4682
Gold closed Thursday at 4699 after a $245 range day. Opened at 4783, tagged 4826, collapsed to 4580, and recovered to 4699. Exhaustion candle. The weekly POC from last week was 4620, and the current session has POC at 4717 with value 4661 to 4725.
The histogram shows two clusters: a broad base from 4656-4688 (1,500-1,700 contracts per bucket) and a spike at 4716-4718 (1,969 contracts). Price is sitting between them at 4700. The monthly open is right here at 4698. Gold is deciding.
GC LEVELS
Thursday High 4826 The blow-off
Session HVN 4717 Overnight volume cluster
Weekly VAH 4725 Upper value
Monthly Open 4698 Right on it. Decision level.
Session VWAP 4682 Below current price. Support.
Weekly VAL 4661 Lower value
Lower HVN 4656 Volume support base
Prior Week VAL 4527 Deep support
4. WEEKLY OPTIONS OUTLOOK
ES: Negative gamma. P/C open interest ratio is 2.82, heavily put-skewed. IV 30D at 19.65%. Expected daily move plus or minus 1.28% (~85 handles). The flip level sits at 6605. Above it, moves dampen. Below, they accelerate. Heavy options interest at 6600 (biggest concentration), clusters at 6575 and 6675. Call resistance at 6800, put support at 6500. Confluence at 6605 where the flip level meets the prior session POC.
NQ: Positive gamma. P/C at 1.31, balanced. IV at 23.31%. Expected daily move plus or minus 1.52% (~370 handles). Biggest interest at 24000, clusters at 24400 and 24500. Call resistance at 24750, put support at 23000. Flip level at 24070, below current price. Confluence at 24245 where a blind spot level overlaps with the RTH HVN.
CL: Crisis volatility. IV at 112.65%. Net GEX massively positive (246M). Biggest interest at 115, then 108, 112, 107, 109. Call resistance at 110 (price right on it). Put support at 90. Expected daily range $8.
GC: IV at 31.97%. Biggest interest at 4700, then 4750, 4650. Call resistance at 5000. Put support at 4400. Flip at 4595, below price. Expected daily range ~$94.
CTA: Speculators in ES were net short heading into the week (-36,230 contracts as of 3/31), but they added 27,710 longs and cut 5,642 shorts. That’s a +33K net swing toward long. They’re covering. NQ specs are net long at +21,513, added 9,564 longs and cut 7,486 shorts. The spec crowd is getting bullish in tech.
VIX: 24.54. 2Y yield at 3.79%, 10Y at 4.31%, spread 0.51%. Normal curve. Fed funds at 3.64%.
5. MOMENTUM AND CONTEXT
Value areas are migrating higher. Last week’s ES POC was 6610, prior week’s was 6655. This week’s early value at 6626 is building above last week’s POC. If this holds through Monday and Tuesday, we’re stacking value higher.
NQ’s value migration is cleaner. Prior week POC 24400, last week 24150, this week 24308. Weekly closes: 23254 (two weeks ago) to 24130 (last week). That’s a 900-point improvement in one week.
Crude went from a monthly VWAP of 105.73 to trading at 110. The monthly profile has a value area from 96.52 to 115.06, which is absurdly wide. There’s no equilibrium, just event-driven price discovery.
Gold monthly VWAP at 4713, price at 4700. Almost perfectly balanced on the monthly anchor. Prior month POC was 5060, we’re $360 below that. Consolidation range.
Cross-asset: crude driving everything. If crude stays above 110, equities stay cautious and gold stays bid. If crude drops (ceasefire), equities rip and gold takes a breather.
6. SWING SETUPS
ES long above 6610. If value continues stacking above the multi-session POC at 6610 through Monday and Tuesday, the weekly structure is bullish. Target: test of 6654 (prior week high). Confirmation: two sessions closing above 6620 with value area above 6600. Wrong if ES closes below 6572 (monthly open). 2-3 day hold.
NQ long on pullback to 24150. The triple-timeframe POC at 24150 is the entry zone. If NQ pulls back from the 24350 area and holds 24150 with buying interest on the footprint, that’s the spot. Target: 24500 (options cluster). Wrong if NQ closes below 23926 (monthly open). 2-3 day hold.
CL fade if 113.97 holds. If crude retests Thursday’s high at 114 and can’t get through, that’s a short. Crisis vol means the move will be fast. Target: 109 area (weekly VAL). Wrong if CL closes above 114. 1-2 days max. Size down, this thing moves $8 a day.
7. WHAT I’M WATCHING THIS WEEK
1. 6654 ES. The only thing that matters for equity bulls. Prior week’s high. Take it out and the V-reversal is confirmed. Fail here and we chop between 6572 and 6654 all week.
2. Iran headlines. More important than any economic data this week. A ceasefire framework changes everything. A breakdown sends crude to 120.
3. CPI Friday. If core CPI comes in hot because of the energy spike, the Fed’s “hold” narrative gets complicated. That’s the kind of print that moves markets 100 handles.
4. NQ vs ES divergence. NQ in positive gamma, ES in negative. If they start moving in opposite directions, follow the leader.
5. 24150 NQ. The triple POC. Does it hold as support or break?
8. THE WEEK’S PLAN
Bullish above 6610 ES, neutral between 6572 and 6610, bearish below 6572. NQ is the cleaner long if you want equity exposure. Crude is untradeable for size until the headline risk calms down. Gold is a coinflip at 4700. CPI Friday is the land mine. Size down until Wednesday at minimum. Protect yourself at all times. Survive and advance.
Not financial advice. I am not a financial advisor, CTA, or portfolio manager. Nothing here is a recommendation to buy, sell, or hold anything. Futures trading involves substantial risk of loss and is not suitable for everyone. You can lose more than your initial investment. Only trade with money you can afford to lose. Past performance does not guarantee future results.
Free trading course: course.nick4atick.com | X: @Nick4ATick
This is great, Nick. Look forward to your posts now. Thank you for your time and appreciate you doing this.
Also, where do you get you delta by price profile indicator? Right now I am super imposing NT OrderFlow Volume Profile using buy/sell delta on top of the standard volume profile. You’re the man btw!